Forecasting of the American Digital Economy Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

This paper forecasts the digital economy trends during a COVID-19 pandemic in the world. Considered the USA one of the world's largest economies and has recently been shifting almost completely to digital economies. Therefore, this paper used the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the gross domestic product (GDP) for the USA over the period 1960-2019. As we arrive at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most squeezing questions confronting us is: what is the likely effect of the ongoing emergency on the digital economy development rate? The results have been shown first that the GDP growth for both years 2020 and 2021 is approximately 6% for the USA. Second, we conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic cannot influence the countries that depend on technology and the digital economy. Thus, technology is playing a very significant role in our daily life and nations’ economies.