Probabilistic analysis of peak intensity distribution of earthquakes on an example of Irkutsk

D. A. Karmazinov, T. Dmitrieva
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Abstract

This article discusses approaches to forecasting the earthquake odds of a given intensity level. This problem is relevant for the earthquake-prone zone in the south of the Irkutsk region characterised by an estimated intensity of shaking of up to 9 points, where large, populated areas having developed industrial and civil construction are located. The intensity values for Irkutsk were obtained using the analysed data on the seismic activity of the Baikal and Transbaikalia regions in 1973–2020 by the equa-tion of the macroseismic field. The algorithm for predicting large and medium-sized earthquakes in-volves mathematical statistics and probability theory. A corresponding empirical distribution was derived on the basis of a sample of the maximum intensity values for the specified period in each year. The potential applicability of common distribution functions for describing the intensity distribution of seis-mic vibrations was considered. It was established that the normal distribution function provides the most accurate description of statistical data. It was concluded that, by using this function, it is possible to determine the high-intensity vibration odds that can lead to serious destruction, as well as their most probable annual peak intensity, which may allow for measures ensuring the resistance of load-bearing structures of buildings to background seismic impacts.
以伊尔库茨克为例的地震峰值烈度分布的概率分析
本文讨论了预测给定烈度的地震概率的方法。这个问题与伊尔库茨克地区南部的地震易发区有关,该地区的地震强度估计高达9点,该地区人口稠密,工业和民用建筑发达。利用1973-2020年贝加尔湖和外贝加尔湖地区的地震活动分析资料,利用宏观地震场方程得到了伊尔库茨克的烈度值。大中型地震预测算法涉及数理统计和概率论。根据每年指定时期的最大强度值样本,推导出相应的经验分布。考虑了常用分布函数描述地震振动强度分布的潜在适用性。正态分布函数是对统计数据最准确的描述。结论是,通过使用该函数,可以确定可能导致严重破坏的高强度振动几率,以及它们最可能的年峰值强度,这可能允许采取措施确保建筑物承重结构对本底地震影响的抵抗。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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