Lessons Learned from Delta and Omicron Variants Transmissions Leveraging Clustering Approach by Sub-Districts in Jakarta

Abstract

Various variants of COVID-19 have entered Indonesia, such as the delta and the omicron variants. The delta variant has a higher severity than the omicron variant, but the transmission rate for the omicron variant is much faster. The government encourages citizens to get booster vaccines to reduce the effect of the delta and omicron variants. The booster vaccine produced a better effect on citizens than on people who received only the two doses. Therefore, in this study, we observe the transmission of COVID-19 and the vaccine locations on the sub-districts level using the clustering approach. The data we use are COVID-19 positive cases, died, treated, and self-isolated cases. Meanwhile, the vaccination data are $1^{\text{s}\text{t}}$ dose, $2^{\text{n}\text{d}}$ doses, stage 3 of $1^{\text{s}\text{t}}$ dose, and stage 3 of $2^{\text{n}\text{d}}$ doses. The Dunn Index and Hubert Index methods determined the best number of clusters before the clustering process. Silhouette and Davies Bouldin are used to find better clustering between Fuzzy C-Means, K-Means, and Partition Around Medoids (PAM). The results obtained from this study showed that the K-Means method was the best with the best number of clusters, namely 3. Jagakarsa and Kebon Jeruk entered high levels at the time of the delta variant due to the COVID-19 case and vaccination spread. However, Jagakarsa and Kebon Jeruk dropped to the intermediate level during the omicron variant. The benefit of this study is to help the government pay more attention to high COVID-19 cases and low vaccine distribution.