Long memory in international equity markets: revisited

A. Assaf
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引用次数: 12

Abstract

This study provides empirical evidence of the long-range behaviour in international equity markets. We test for long memory in the daily returns using the modified rescaled range statistic R/S proposed by Lo (1991) and the rescaled variance V/S statistic developed by Giraitis et al. (2003). Long memory is found to be weak in the return series when using R/S but some evidence of long memory is found in USA and Germany based on V/S analysis. Our results confirm those reported by Lo (1991) using only the rescaled range analysis and should be useful to regulators, practitioners and derivative market participants, whose success depends on the ability to forecast stock price movements.
国际股票市场的长期记忆:重访
本研究为国际股票市场的长期行为提供了实证证据。我们使用Lo(1991)提出的修正的重标度极差统计量R/S和Giraitis等人(2003)开发的重标度方差统计量V/S来测试日收益中的长记忆。当使用R/S分析时,发现长记忆在回归序列中较弱,但通过V/S分析,在美国和德国发现了长记忆的一些证据。我们的结果证实了Lo(1991)仅使用重新调整的范围分析所报告的结果,并且应该对监管机构,从业者和衍生品市场参与者有用,他们的成功取决于预测股价走势的能力。
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