Forecasting Water Level Fluctuations of Urmieh Lake Using Gene Expression Programming and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

Forecasting lake level at various prediction intervals is an essential issue in such industrial applications as navigation, water resource planning and catchment management. In the present study, two data driven techniques, namely Gene Expression Programming and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, were applied for predicting daily lake levels for three prediction intervals. Daily water-level data from Urmieh Lake in Northwestern Iran were used to train, test and validate the used techniques. Three statistical indexes, coefficient of determination, root mean square error and variance accounted for were used to assess the performance of the used techniques. Technique inter-comparisons demonstrated that the GEP surpassed the ANFIS model at each of the prediction intervals. A traditional auto regressive moving average model was also applied to the same data sets; the obtained results were compared with those of the data driven approaches demonstrating superiority of the data driven models to ARMA.