A process simulation model for a proposed Moroccan supply chain of electricity

Abstract

The short-term forecast of electricity consumption plays a vital role in the effective management of allocated resources to electricity generation. A reduction in the average forecasting error of 1% can save thousands or even millions of dirhams in an electricity generation unit. Therefore, predicting the electricity consumption is necessary to minimize costs of over or under production. The work presented in this paper aims to reduce the forecast error by focusing on the strategic level of managing electricity in Morocco. It details the actual electricity supply chain, and proposes a target one, and then it models the both, following an explained methodology, which gives us a process simulation models to be evaluated. The paper also proposes a set of indicators to be calculated in the simulation, helping thus us to compare the two supply chains.