{"title":"A comparison of economic indicator analysis and Markov switching methods concerning the cycle phase dynamics: report","authors":"Pami Dua, Vineeta D. Sharma","doi":"10.1787/JBCMA-2015-5JM22PFHMHLP","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares the dating of growth rate cycles obtained from a Markov switching approach with the reference chronologies based on Economic Indicator Analysis (EIA) given by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), focusing on a set of developed and emerging economies. The developed countries include US, UK, Germany and Japan, which are compared with an emerging economy, India. Using a univariate Markov regime switching model we characterise growth rate cycle phenomena for these countries by identifying turning points and distinct economic regimes, employing data on the growth rate of the coincident index given by ECRI.","PeriodicalId":313514,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2016-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"8","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Oecd Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1787/JBCMA-2015-5JM22PFHMHLP","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Abstract
This paper compares the dating of growth rate cycles obtained from a Markov switching approach with the reference chronologies based on Economic Indicator Analysis (EIA) given by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), focusing on a set of developed and emerging economies. The developed countries include US, UK, Germany and Japan, which are compared with an emerging economy, India. Using a univariate Markov regime switching model we characterise growth rate cycle phenomena for these countries by identifying turning points and distinct economic regimes, employing data on the growth rate of the coincident index given by ECRI.