Mathematical prediction of the risks of iron deficiency in women

Abstract

Purpose. Based on the study of medico-social, medico-biological and psychological factors, to assess the risks of iron deficiency in women. The results obtained will be used to develop a relevant program for the prevention of iron deficiency anemia and latent iron deficiency in primary health care. Materials and methods. The medical and social study was conducted on the basis of the city polyclinics of Kazan, the samples included two groups of women: 394 patients with laboratory-confirmed iron deficiency, including its clinical manifestations, and 373 women with a confirmed absence of iron deficiency and without probable complaints. The following methods were used in the study: bibliographic, socio-hygienic, psychological testing, sociological, information-analytical, mathematical-statistical, organizational experiment. Results. New data have been established on the factors affecting the volume of tissue iron stores in women: statistically significant associations of serum ferritin with sleep quality parameters and carbohydrate intake. The risks of iron deficiency anemia and latent iron deficiency were assessed, and subranges for individual risk groups were calculated. Findings. Statistically significant associations were found in the ferritin-total protein model with late bedtime (p <0,001), discrete sleep patterns (p <0,001), situational anxiety (p <0,001), and daily sugar intake (p = 0,021). According to mathematical forecasting, the greatest influence on the development of IDA in women is “going to bed” (R=2,1). Women who go to bed after midnight and from 23.00 to midnight are at risk of iron deficiency anemia, the risk of which is 2 times higher than in women who fall asleep before 23.00. The probability of latent iron deficiency in women with a high level of personal and situational anxiety is 28–29 times higher than in women with a low level of anxiety (R=29,254 and R=28, respectively).