Estimating Recidivism Risk in Earnings Loss Calculations for Persons Recently Released from Incarceration

Abstract

The risk of re‐incarceration is a complicating factor in evaluations involving earnings losses for persons who are recently released from incarceration. Criminologists and economists have shown that factors such as the ex‐inmate’s age, education, and the type of crime committed are correlated with the risk of criminal recidivism and re‐incarceration. Some studies have shown that in some groups, over 50 percent of ex‐inmates are re‐incarcerated within three years of being released (Langen and Levin (2002)).This paper provides an estimate of the re‐incarceration risk for individuals who are recently released from jail or prison. The estimates of the year‐by‐year re‐incarceration risk can be used in a standard labor force participation economic damage model to calculate earnings losses for persons who have been recently released from incarceration. Using person‐level data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) to estimate a Cox Proportional Hazards model that accounts for factors such as race, gender, age at release, and type of crime committed, I find that in any given year within the first six years of release, the recidivism risk probability varies between 2.5 to 10.9 percent.