Economic effects of changes in VAT rates in Russia

Anna Vital'evna Tikhonova, Vadim Nikolaevich Zas'ko
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Abstract

The subject of the study is the effects of reforming the value added tax. In particular, the authors analyze the economic consequences of an increase in the VAT rate from 18 to 20% in 2020. The following effects are assessed: inflationary, consumer, investment and budgetary. The results are compared with the conclusions obtained earlier by domestic and foreign scientists on the example of developed and developing countries of the world. As research methods, analysis and synthesis, tabular and graphical methods of data visualization, analysis of time series, comparison method, structural and trend analyzes are used. The study contains a number of methodological limitations, which are also consecrated in the work. A special contribution of the authors to the study of the topic is the expansion of the zones of influence of indirect taxation on business and the population. In particular, the authors conclude that despite the presence of a number of negative effects of the increase in the VAT rate for business, nevertheless, such negative effects are most pronounced in relation to the population. They consist in accelerating inflation and reducing consumption in the short term. At the same time, the hypothesis of a significant impact of the VAT rate on investment processes is refuted, which is substantiated by an analysis of the indicators of the investment activity of economic entities in Russia.
俄罗斯增值税税率变化的经济影响
本文研究的主题是增值税改革的效果。作者特别分析了增值税税率在2020年从18%提高到20%的经济后果。评估了以下影响:通货膨胀、消费、投资和预算。并以世界发达国家和发展中国家为例,将所得结果与国内外科学家早前的结论进行了比较。研究方法主要采用数据可视化的分析与综合、表格与图形方法、时间序列分析、比较法、结构与趋势分析等。这项研究包含了一些方法上的局限性,这些局限性在工作中也得到了重视。作者对该专题研究的一个特别贡献是扩大了间接税对企业和人口的影响范围。特别是,作者得出结论,尽管企业增值税税率的增加存在一些负面影响,然而,这种负面影响在人口中最为明显。它们包括在短期内加速通货膨胀和减少消费。与此同时,通过对俄罗斯经济实体投资活动指标的分析,驳斥了增值税税率对投资过程产生重大影响的假设。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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