Power Probabilistic Energy Flow Calculation for Integrated Energy System Considering Uncertainties of Renewable Energy Output and Load

Abstract

The intermittent output of renewable energy and the load fluctuation bring many uncertainties to the integrated energy system. Therefore, this paper proposes a power probabilistic energy flow calculation method for integrated energy systems considering renewable energy output and load uncertainty. Firstly, the electricity-heat-gas integrated energy system's steady-state energy flow calculation model is constructed based on the energy hub model. On this basis, considering the uncertainty of renewable energy output and load, a probabilistic energy flow calculation method for integrated energy systems based on the Quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed for the probabilistic energy flow of electricity. Finally, the accuracy of the calculation method is verified by an example analysis.