Predictors and Correlates of Criminal Trajectory Groups

Abstract

This chapter reviews the literature on developmental predictors and correlates of high-rate-chronic offense trajectories identified in trajectory studies. A number of studies have identified that a small group of offenders account for a disproportionate number of offenses. Therefore, understanding the developmental precursors of this pernicious group may inform early intervention and prevention programs. To set the stage for the discussion, key terms, such as risk factors, correlates, and causal risk factors, are differentiated and defined to provide conceptual clarification. Findings across studies suggest that no one variable in childhood or adolescence emerged as a significant predictor or correlate of the high rate, chronic trajectory group. Rather, multiple variables across various life domains (e.g., family, peer, school, and neighborhood) predicted trajectory membership. Further research is needed to understand the potential causal mechanisms linking risk factors to criminal outcomes.