L’instabilité politique et ses déterminants : un réexamen empirique

Abstract

Many countries are undergoing political crises, sometimes with detrimental economic effects, without a deep analysis of the reasons for these political instabilities. A better understanding of the causes of these instabilities will make it possible to better prevent them, contain them and limit the adverse effects. This paper subscribes in this line, by revisiting the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of political instability. The study is based on a large sample panel of 103 countries, over the period 1975-2015. We propose a factorial approach of political instability, based on its formal and informal dimensions. The cross-sectional and dynamic panel empirical tests confirm that improving macroeconomic conditions reduces the level of political instability. Moreover, democracy seems to reduce the level of formal political instability. As soon as, additional variables used in this study are concerned, we show that that contagion effects linked to geographical proximity are observed and the age of the chief of the executive increases both form of political instability.