Multi-gigawatt thin film PV

Abstract

Thin films are reaching 1-GW annual production because of the success of one company and technology, First Solar CdTe. Other thin films languish, with amorphous and thin film silicon still restrained by low efficiencies; and CIS yet to demonstrate sufficient volume production. Will the future of thin films be only the future of CdTe? Yet even with commercial success, CdTe must also compete with crystalline silicon, which has taken a big step forward with the end of the silicon feedstock problem. What then is the true competitive position of crystalline silicon and CdTe? Still, PV is not alone in providing us with alternative energy. Arguably, the key qualities are non-CO2 production and the potential to make terawatts. PV will compete with solar thermal electric, wind, nuclear, and carbon sequestered fossil fuels to ameliorate the greenhouse effect and energy dependencies. How does PV stack up? And how does intermittency make this competition even harder for PV? One thing is certain, PV costs must continue to drop, because true success in the marketplace will be hard won.