A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

Abstract

In 2020 and 2021, the European traded gas markets experienced two successive years of quite unexpected and extreme external factors which have had a pronounced effect on wholesale prices and the whole trading environment generally. This period saw, in the last week of May 2020, the lowest ever1 Month Ahead traded prices2 followed, in late 2021, by two successive highest ever Month Ahead prices.3 At the time of writing this paper,4 these remain the highest ever European wholesale gas prices. However, due to the current geopolitical situation commodity markets, and in particular the energy markets, are extremely volatile and these prices could be exceeded.