The effects of PPI and CPI in prediction of interest rate value

Ahmet Yüzbaşıoğulları
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Abstract

Interest, which is as old as the history of humanity, is at the center of life today in parallel with the developments in technology and communication. Predicting the future values of interest, which is very important in every field from state administration to individual investments and expenditures, is very important for individuals/companies/ states to continue their activities in a stable manner. In pioneering studies, it has been emphasized that the main components of interest are real interest and future inflation expectations. Over time, the effects of goods, money, and international markets on the formation of interest have been analyzed theoretically and empirically. The effects of Central Banks on monetary policies and their long-term reflections have been the aim of many studies in recent history. The fact that the expected inflation in interest studies does not reflect the truth for many times has prevented the right results from being found. For this reason, it is seen that the realized CPI is generally used in estimating the interest rate. In addition, when countries are examined, it is seen that there are significant differences between CPI and PPI. The aim of this study is to empirically investigate which of the CPI and PPI values realized in estimating the interest rate should be used and to what extent.
PPI和CPI在利率值预测中的作用
兴趣与人类历史一样古老,与技术和通信的发展同时处于今天生活的中心。从国家管理到个人投资和支出,预测未来的利息价值在每个领域都非常重要,这对于个人/公司/国家以稳定的方式继续其活动非常重要。在开创性的研究中,一直强调利率的主要组成部分是实际利率和未来通胀预期。随着时间的推移,商品、货币和国际市场对利息形成的影响已经从理论上和经验上进行了分析。近年来,中央银行对货币政策的影响及其长期反思一直是许多研究的目标。利息研究中预期的通货膨胀率多次不能反映事实,这阻碍了正确的结果的发现。因此,可以看出,在估计利率时,通常使用已实现的CPI。此外,当对各国进行检查时,可以看到CPI和PPI之间存在显着差异。本研究的目的是实证探讨在估计利率时,CPI和PPI中哪一个值应该使用,以及在多大程度上应该使用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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