Identification and Prevention of Collusion among Power Producers in Power Market Based on Decision Tree

Yuchen Duan, Quan Chen, Qian Zhang, Changbao Zheng, Qile Zheng, Long Cheng
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Abstract

The oligopoly nature of the power market leads to the existence of tacit collusion among power producers. The problem of collusion has seriously affected the fairness, competitiveness and effectiveness of the market. For this kind of problem, most predecessors have carried out theoretical research and put forward the causes of collusion and some prevention methods. However, tacit collusion is highly hidden and can be realized in many forms, which is difficult to judge and identify. Starting from the data, this paper finds out the power producers who may have collusion through mathematical methods, and then strictly “takes care of” such power producers. In the new energy power market, it is found that the collusion problem still exists in the new energy power market through modeling and analysis, and the collusion behavior of power producers in the power market is screened through the decision tree classification algorithm, The decision tree algorithm has a very obvious effect on the collusion analysis of power producers in the power market. Finally, some suggestions on the prevention of collusion are put forward.
基于决策树的电力市场生产者合谋识别与预防
电力市场的寡头垄断性质导致电力生产企业之间存在着隐性勾结。合谋问题严重影响了市场的公平、竞争力和有效性。对于这类问题,前人大多进行了理论研究,提出了合谋的成因和一些预防方法。然而,隐性串通具有高度的隐蔽性,可以通过多种形式实现,难以判断和识别。本文从数据入手,通过数学方法找出可能存在串谋的发电企业,并对这些发电企业进行严格的“关照”。在新能源电力市场中,通过建模分析发现新能源电力市场中仍然存在合谋问题,并通过决策树分类算法对电力市场中电力生产者的合谋行为进行筛选,决策树算法对电力市场中电力生产者的合谋分析效果非常明显。最后,提出了防止串谋的几点建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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