An International Perspective on the Loan Puzzle in Emerging Markets

Abstract

In seminal work, Den Haan et al. (2007, 2010, 2011) show business loans respond in the opposite direction of what may be intended by monetary policy action in the United States and Canada. Based on various approaches, identification schemes, and samples, we document evidence this loan puzzle is not exclusive to developed economies but is also pervasive in emerging markets. We find business loans generally decline following expansionary monetary policy shocks. A preponderance of statistical and structural evidence indicates important transmissions of this puzzle from the United States to emerging markets.