ANALYSIS OF METHODS OF FORECASTING SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE EXAMPLE OF KHANTY-MANSIYSK AUTONOMOUS OKRUG-YUGRA

Abstract

University, Khanty-Mansiysk, e-mail: btkachev@mail.ru The article presents the analysis of existing methods of forecasting the socio-economic development of the region on the example of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Yugra. In connection with the approval in 2019, new indicators for performance assessment of senior officials (heads of Supreme Executive public authorities) of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and enforcement authorities of subjects of the Russian Federation it is proposed to separate the integral and basic indicators of socio-economic development of the region by category status and development. The components for each indicator are defined, the forecasting methods used in practice are characterized. The content component of indicators on their functional features is shown. Assessment and forecast of state indicators allows to use the theory of States and the ability to predict indicators without analyzing changes in the structure (functional analysis). Forecasting of development indicators should be based on structural analysis. The analysis of the conditions affecting the assessment and forecasting of socio-economic development of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Yugra is carried out. The paper concludes that the specific state of the initial information in the region affects the choice of forecasting method, the construction of forecast models, the assessment of the quality of models, the definition of prospective