The Impact of Climate Change on Russian Agriculture and Implications for Global Food Security

Abstract

Although Russia’s grain growing regions have experienced episodic droughts, the financial impact of climate change has to date been modest when measured in terms of value of production lost. As industrial agriculture continues to emit greenhouse gases, the impact of climate change will intensify, making Russia’s southern regions drier and hotter, and potentially forcing a structural shift in production northward, an event that will lead to lower yields and grain output. The sustainable sector in Russia’s agricultural system is not able to compensate for lower grain output in the south, nor is it able to feed the nation or ensure food security across the full spectrum of commodities that consumers expect. The prospect of Russia as a declining grain power impacts the dozens of nations that import Russian grain, most notably authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.