Trans-Boundary Air Pollution Spillovers: Physical Transport and Economic Costs by Distance

Shihe Fu, V. Viard, Peng Zhang
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引用次数: 12

Abstract

The economic costs of trans-boundary pollution spillovers versus local effects is a necessary input in evaluating centralized versus decentralized environmental policies. Directly estimating these for air pollution is difficult because spillovers are high-frequency and vary with distance while economic outcomes are usually measured with low-frequency and local pollution is endogenous. We develop an approach to quantify local versus spillover effects as a flexible function of distance utilizing commonly-available pollution and weather data. To correct for the endogeneity of pollution, it uses a mixed two-stage least squares method that accommodates high-frequency (daily) pollution data and low-frequency (annual) outcome data. This avoids using annual pollution data which generally yields inefficient estimates. We apply the approach to estimate spillovers of particulate matter smaller than 10 micrograms (PM10) on manufacturing labor productivity in China. A one μg/m3 annual increase in PM10 locally reduces the average firm’s annual output by CNY 45,809 while the same increase in a city 50 kilometers away decreases it by CNY 16,248. The spillovers decline quickly to CNY 2,847 at 600 kilometers and then slowly to zero at about 1,000 kilometers. The results suggest the need for supra-provincial environmental policies or Coasian prices quantified under the approach.
跨界空气污染溢出:按距离计算的物质运输和经济成本
跨界污染外溢与地方影响的经济成本是评价集中式与分散式环境政策的必要投入。直接估计空气污染的这些影响是困难的,因为溢出效应是高频的,并且随距离而变化,而经济结果通常是用低频来衡量的,而且当地污染是内生的。我们开发了一种方法,利用普遍可用的污染和天气数据,将局部效应与溢出效应作为距离的灵活函数进行量化。为了纠正污染的内生性,它使用了一种混合的两阶段最小二乘法,该方法可以容纳高频(每日)污染数据和低频(年度)结果数据。这样就避免了使用年度污染数据,因为这种数据通常会产生低效的估计。我们运用该方法估算了小于10微克的颗粒物(PM10)对中国制造业劳动生产率的溢出效应。当地PM10浓度每增加1 μg/m3,平均企业的年产量就会减少45809元人民币,而50公里外的城市则会减少16248元人民币。在600公里处,溢出效应迅速下降至2847元,在1000公里左右,溢出效应逐渐为零。结果表明,有必要制定跨省的环境政策或在该方法下量化亚洲价格。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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