Dynamic safeguard assessment of terror attacks using system dynamics method for nuclear power plants

Abstract

For the minimisation of the damage in possible terror attacks on the nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, a dynamic assessment is performed in the aspects of nuclear safeguard. The incidents against nuclear facilities are modelled by the time-step scenario. Several cases are explained for the illicit trafficking of radioactive material. The dynamic simulation is examined by the system dynamics method. In the modelling, there are three major models that include the nuclear insider terror, the reaction control and the nuclear forensic steps. The risk increases slowly and decreases rapidly in the result. This is the similar pattern of the September 2001 terror where many lives were lost.