Developing Heat Index for Heat Wave Hazard Mapping: A Case Study of Sindh Province, Pakistan

Abstract

In the last decade, climate change is prominently seen with rise in occurrence and severity of heat waves, especially in the province of Sindh, Pakistan. Heat waves have claimed thousands of lives and have resulted in major financial losses over the past years. The disaster is a combination of environmental mismanagement and meteorological disturbances. With an increase in frequency of heat wave events recorded in last five years, it is imminent that more losses are expected to occur. It is integral to develop heat wave identification techniques, monitor occurrence events, develop probabilistic models, and formulate risk reduction plans accordingly. This paper is an attempt to map occurrences and assess the impact severity of heat waves in the province of Sindh. Satellite derived daily temperature and humidity records are used to develop a historic database as input in the model. Moreover, it aims at defining a threshold to develop a Heat Index for the region. The index is to be used for defining the discomfort level experienced by people at different heat wave intensities. The study incorporates this heat index to map heat wave hazard, over period from 2000–2019. Several heat wave records are obtained through the algorithm and combined to develop a heat wave hazard map. The study would be beneficial for disaster management agencies and planning departments in coping with the future heat wave hazards and risk reduction.