Computation of power generation system production costs

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of computing the expected value of generating system production costs. First, using a stochastic model for the frequency and duration of generation outage, it provides an efficient Monte Carlo procedure for the evaluation of the Baleriaux formula. Secondly, it points out the need for using a stochastic model for estimating production costs with time-dependent constraints via Monte Carlo. Lastly, it considers a model where the chronological load also has a random component and obtains an expression for expected production costs for this situation.