The Effect of Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme (AETS) Policy on Indonesia's Natural Rubber Exports to Japan

Safira Retna Hanivia, Suprehatin Suprehatin
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Natural rubber is one of Indonesia's major agricultural export commodities. However, the export performance of Indonesia’s natural rubber to several destination countries experienced a downward trend during the 2011-2019 period. Japan is one of the leading export destinations for Indonesia’s natural rubber, experiencing a downward trend in export value. This study aims to analyze Indonesia’s natural rubber exports to Japan and its agreed export tonnage scheme (AETS) policy. The study utilized a monthly time series data from 2011 to 2019. The data were analyzed using descriptive qualitative and error correction model (ECM) methods. The results showed the implementation of AETS policy and world natural rubber price had significant effect on the export value of Indonesia’s natural rubber to Japan in the long-run, but it is not applied in the short-run. Indonesia needs to improve the quality and productivity of natural rubber production to increase the performance of Indonesia’s natural rubber exports to Japan. Furthermore, Indonesia needs to evaluate the effectiveness of the AETS policy on natural rubber.
协议出口吨位计划(AETS)政策对印尼对日本天然橡胶出口的影响
天然橡胶是印尼主要的农产品出口商品之一。然而,在2011-2019年期间,印度尼西亚对几个目的地国家的天然橡胶出口表现呈下降趋势。日本是印尼天然橡胶的主要出口目的地之一,出口额呈下降趋势。本研究旨在分析印尼对日本的天然橡胶出口及其商定出口吨位计划(AETS)政策。该研究使用了2011年至2019年的月度时间序列数据。采用描述性定性和误差修正模型(ECM)方法对数据进行分析。结果表明,AETS政策的实施和世界天然橡胶价格对印尼对日天然橡胶出口价值的长期影响显著,但短期不适用。印尼需要提高天然橡胶生产的质量和生产率,以增加印尼对日本天然橡胶出口的业绩。此外,印度尼西亚需要评估AETS对天然橡胶政策的有效性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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