LONG-TERM SCENARIOS OF GLOBAL POWER INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT: MAIN TENDENCIES AND UNCERTAINTIES

Abstract

Scenario analysis of world electricity in the long-term perspective within the general context of global economic growth allowed the authors to conclude that perspective dynamics of electricity in the world leading production and consumption centers will be decisively influenced by complex and heterogeneous factors, including: first, primary energy resources endowment; second, level and type of economic development; third, countries capacities to mobilize financial and investment resources necessary for promotion of new renewable energy sources; fourth, na tional economic and energy strategies. Depending on these factors countries will remain at very different stages of energy transition at the foreseeable future. There is no a universal model of energy transition.