Simulating shot selection strategies and scoring outcomes in Super Netball’s ‘Power 5’ period

Abstract

In 2020, Australia's elite-level netball league introduced the ‘Super Shot’ – an opportunity for teams to gain two versus one goal per shot during the final 5 minutes of each quarter (i.e. Power 5 period). In this study, we ran simulations of Power 5 periods to: (i) identify expected scoring outcomes from Super Shot selection strategies and (ii) examine how Super Shot selection strategies could impact the scoring margin between teams. We ran simulations emulating Power 5 periods with different Super Shot selection strategies for teams individually and when competing against one another, and examined the scoring outputs and margins. A greater tendency for attempting Super Shots was a high-risk: high-reward strategy, where this strategy could result in both high- and low-scoring outcomes (i.e. increased scoring volatility). Average margins were not largely affected by Super Shot selection strategy in simulations between teams, yet the more volatile scoring with a higher tendency for Super Shot attempts led to wider margin ranges. We propose that a singular ‘optimal’ Super Shot selection strategy does not exist and that the match scenario should be a key driver in determining a team’s strategy.