Risk analysis of globalized airline supply chains

Abstract

Infiltration of the global airplane production supply chain could have catastrophic impacts on flight safety. Thousands of suppliers feed specialized components and materials to only a few large airplane manufacturers. One compromised node in the supply chain could significantly damage the world's commercial airline fleets. A methodology and two models are proposed to detect and assess risk points in the global airplane production supply chain in order to increase safety in commercial air travel. Analyzing risk in the supply chain involves (1) examining ubiquity of components; (2) instances in which a component travels through a geopolitically unstable region; and (3) supply chain nodes responsible for a significant proportion of production with respect to an airplane model, an airplane manufacturer's fleet, or an airline's fleet. Finally, components are assigned a risk score based on ubiquity and geopolitical risk, and high-risk supply chain nodes are identified. With the appropriate data, the generalizable design of the methodology and models could be applied to the supply chain of any airplane model, any fleet size or fleet makeup, and other vehicles. A dashboard that allows more specific investigation is also demonstrated.