Evaluation of the Social Restriction and its Effect to the COVID-19 Spread in Indonesia

Abstract

The government of Indonesia has implemented a Large-Scale Social Restriction (LSSR/PSBB) of various levels, in the local and national region to control the COVID-19 transmission over the country. Successful social restrictions are believed as a powerful way in controlling COVID-19 spread. This paper evaluated the social restriction that has been implemented in Indonesia and its connection to the spread of COVID-19 in the period 15 February 2020 to 10 January 2021. The social restriction is quantified by the changes in human movement, while the spread of COVID-19 is computed by a growth rate and doubling time of the COVID-19 cases. A statistic measure by linear regression is applied to investigate the dependency of the COVID-19 spread and human movement. This paper showed the social restriction reduced human mobility up to more than 50% when the restriction was started. It flattened the cases but it only lasted for approximately two months. Afterward, the growth rate and the doubling time showed an increase of the COVID-19 cases and it was getting much worse starting at the end of the year 2020. Moreover, we found that the implemented social restriction in Indonesia is less effective to reduce the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia as human mobility during a holiday, an especially long weekend is much stronger.