Piracy on the Silver Screen

J. Waldfogel, R. Rob
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引用次数: 156

Abstract

New information technology has reduced marginal production and distribution costs of information goods to negligible levels and promises to revolutionize many industries. Unpaid copies of digital products can be as good as paid first-generation copies, and their availability can undermine the ability of sellers to cover first-copy costs. As a result, unpaid distribution has emerged as a major issue facing the music and movie industries in the past few years. Using survey data on movie consumption by about 500 University of Pennsylvania college students, we ask whether unpaid consumption of movies displaces paid consumption. Employing a variety of cross-sectional and longitudinal empirical approaches, we find large and statistically significant evidence of displacement. In what we view as the most appropriate empirical specifications, we find that unpaid first consumption reduces paid consumption by about 1 unit. Unpaid second consumption has a smaller effect, about 0.20 units. These estimates indicate that unpaid consumption, which makes up 5.2 percent of movie viewing in our sample, reduced paid consumption in our sample by 3.5 percent.
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新的信息技术将信息产品的边际生产和分销成本降低到可以忽略不计的水平,并有望给许多行业带来革命性的变化。数字产品的免费拷贝可以和付费的第一代拷贝一样好,它们的可用性会削弱卖家支付首次拷贝成本的能力。因此,在过去的几年里,无偿发行已经成为音乐和电影行业面临的一个主要问题。我们利用约500名宾夕法尼亚大学大学生的电影消费调查数据,询问无偿电影消费是否取代了有偿电影消费。采用各种横截面和纵向经验方法,我们发现了大量和统计上显著的位移证据。在我们认为最合适的经验规范中,我们发现未支付的首次消费减少了大约1个单位的付费消费。未支付的二次消费影响较小,约为0.20个单位。这些估计表明,在我们的样本中,未付费消费占电影观看的5.2%,这使我们样本中的付费消费减少了3.5%。
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