Rebound in Fertility in Ukraine: Expectations, Factors, Obstacles

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to find out whether post-war rebound in fertility will be able to achieve at least the pre-war level in Ukraine and whether the “baby boom” phenomenon will be possible in our country. For the first time, the factors that will contribute to fertility growth or slow down this process were considered in the context of the Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine. The research was carried out using such methods as analysis and synthesis, comparison, generalization, analogy, graphic method. Fertility accumulates the effect of a huge number of various factors that ultimately manifests itself in certain trend in the development of this process. It is relevant to analyse the factors that will change the birth rate during the war and post-war periods. The long period of military conflict in the east of our country, political tension, decrease in the welfare level of the population, and the protracted nature of the pandemic led to the accumulation of significant number of postponed births. The cohorts born in the 1990s are in active childbearing age now, but they are not large in number. This can reduce rebound in fertility after the end of the war. At the same time, certain expectations of increase in fertility are associated with women aged 30–34, who are more numerous than the younger cohorts, have accumulated significant number of postponed births and further postponement will increase the risk of impossibility to implement childbearing plans due to biological factor. Large number of dead, destroyed housing and infrastructure, social and economic problems, uncertainty about the future, significant share of refugees who decide not to return to Ukraine can significantly restrict rebound in fertility. Responsibility towards the unborn child forms the intention to further postpone their birth, but raising the responsibility of parenthood to the level of family or society will not allow the rejection of plans to give birth to a child. Under the condition of comprehensive family policy, in particular a pronatalist policy, one can hope for increase in the birth rate in the post-war period. However, it is unlikely that the number of births will exceed the number hit during the wave of increased fertility (that is, the possibility of a baby boom).