European Seismic Risk Model 2020: Focus on Croatia

Abstract

This paper summarises the development of the European seismic risk model that is being undertaken within the Horizon 2020 SERA project in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The main innovation of the current effort with respect to previous initiatives relates to the extension of seismic risk to 46 countries within Europe, the use of a fully probabilistic methodology, the consideration of socio-economic aspects, and the involvement of the local scientific community in the development of the models. Some specific details of the European risk model for Croatia are also presented, together with some preliminary results.