Confirmation Bias in Analysts’ Response to Consensus Forecasts

Huan Cai, Tong Yao, Xiaodi Zhang
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

This paper provides evidence of confirmation bias by sell-side analysts in their earnings forecasts. We show that analysts tend to put higher weight on public information when the current forecast consensus is more consistent with their previous forecasts. Our results further suggest that the effect of confirmation bias on analyst forecasts is distinct from that of conservatism, self-attribution bias, or overconfidence. We find that analysts with better forecasting performance, shorter experience following a firm, providing earlier forecasts, or facing more dispersion in peer forecasts, tend to be less subject to confirmation bias, consistent with existing cognitive and social psychology theories.
分析师对共识预测反应中的确认偏差
本文提供了卖方分析师在盈利预测中存在确认偏差的证据。我们表明,当当前的预测共识与他们之前的预测更一致时,分析师倾向于给予公共信息更高的权重。我们的研究结果进一步表明,确认偏误对分析师预测的影响不同于保守主义、自我归因偏误或过度自信。我们发现,预测业绩较好的分析师,跟随公司的经验较短的分析师,提供较早的预测的分析师,或面临更多的同行预测的分析师,往往较少受到确认偏差的影响,这与现有的认知和社会心理学理论相一致。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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