Application of ARMA Model in Prediction of Development Trend of Partial Discharge

Proceedings of 5th International Conference on Vehicle, Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI:10.5220/0008856103900397

Hui Xia, Chenhao Zhao, Z. Tang, Wu Deguan, Pang Kai

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

: Nowadays, gas insulated switchgear (GIS) has been widely used in power systems. Due to some external factors, there may be defects in GIS, and some minor defects are difficult to find in the early stage. However, partial discharges (PD) is easy to occur in the defects and make the defect large, which may cause the failure of GIS and bring about huge economic losses to both power systems and society eventually. Therefore, it is helpful to discover the defect discharge in time and predict its development trend for the early warning of fault and taking suitable countermeasures. In this paper, ARMA model is selected to predict the development trend of partial discharge, and partial discharge experiment and three kinds of defect models are designed evaluate the prediction effect of the ARMA model. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that ARMA model can accurately predict the development trend of linear characteristic parameters, but it cannot predict that of irregular characteristic parameters of PD accurately.

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ARMA模型在局部放电发展趋势预测中的应用

当前，气体绝缘开关柜(GIS)已广泛应用于电力系统中。由于一些外部因素的影响，GIS可能存在缺陷，一些小缺陷在早期很难被发现。然而，缺陷中容易发生局部放电，使缺陷变大，从而可能导致GIS失效，最终给电力系统和社会带来巨大的经济损失。因此，及时发现缺陷放电并预测其发展趋势，有助于对故障进行早期预警并采取相应的对策。本文选择ARMA模型对局部放电的发展趋势进行预测，并设计了局部放电实验和三种缺陷模型来评价ARMA模型的预测效果。最后得出结论:ARMA模型可以准确预测PD的线性特征参数的发展趋势，但不能准确预测PD的不规则特征参数的发展趋势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Proceedings of 5th International Conference on Vehicle, Mechanical and Electrical Engineering

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