Systems Thinking for Sustainability

Bryan Robert Jenkins
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Abstract

A sustainability framework based on nested adaptive socio-ecological systems is used to analyse historical examples of soil erosion and its implications for food production and security for a growing population. While there are examples of innovation in agriculture to address food availability, there are also cases of inadequate social responses leading to famine. The analysis highlights the value of considering these issues in a framework of linked biophysical and socio-economic systems. The socio-economic system generates management interventions to resolve biophysical limitations such as soil depletion on food production. The socio-economic system is also responsible when there are inadequate social responses. Currently, the biophysical system produces enough food to feed the world population. However, food distribution through the socio-economic system results in increasing numbers of undernourished people. Biophysical system modelling indicates that unless major changes are made to the current world system, overshoot because of resource depletion will lead to system collapse within the 21st century. To develop sustainability strategies, we need to analyse the socio-economic response to this biophysical vulnerability. A socio-ecological analysis also indicates that perspectives based on power relations that govern real-world decision making rather than sustainability interventions to address food security, need to be incorporated.
可持续发展的系统思考
基于嵌套适应性社会生态系统的可持续性框架用于分析土壤侵蚀的历史实例及其对粮食生产和人口增长安全的影响。虽然有农业创新解决粮食供应问题的例子,但也有社会反应不足导致饥荒的例子。分析强调了在相互联系的生物物理和社会经济系统框架内考虑这些问题的价值。社会经济系统产生管理干预措施,以解决诸如粮食生产的土壤枯竭等生物物理限制。当社会反应不足时,社会经济制度也负有责任。目前,生物物理系统生产的粮食足以养活世界人口。然而,通过社会经济系统进行的粮食分配导致营养不良的人数不断增加。生物物理系统模型表明,除非对当前的世界系统做出重大改变,否则由于资源枯竭而导致的过度反应将导致系统在21世纪内崩溃。为了制定可持续发展战略,我们需要分析对这种生物物理脆弱性的社会经济反应。社会生态分析还表明,需要纳入基于权力关系的观点,这些观点支配着现实世界的决策,而不是解决粮食安全问题的可持续性干预措施。
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