The Impact of Government Policy on Brazil Economic Miracle’s Failure

Mengjia Chen, Xiang Gu, Yuyan Jiang, Xinyu Li
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Abstract

From 1968 to 1973, Brazil experienced unprecedented economic growth thanks to the reform policies in the political and economic spherespolicies of the military government. However, after 1974, due to changes in the domestic and international environment and multiple subjective and objective reasons, coupled with the impact of the global oil crisis, Brazil’s economy gradually declined. And after 1980, it entered what was known as the "lost decade". The article analyzes the policy-level causes of Brazil's economic miracle recession in a comparative manner, using data from the statistical yearbooks obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) for the period 1970 to 1980. The analysis shows that a large part of the reason for the gradual decline of the Brazilian economic miracle came from the policies implemented by the Brazilian government during this period, such as debt development strategy, industrial-based industrial structure, trade protection and state intervention. The article further notes that the late decline of Brazil's economic miracle is precisely due to its policy nature of short-term overdraft and unsustainability. By inference, if a country implements policies during economic transition that are not based on its own national conditions, ignoring its own resource advantages, focusing on economic development and neglecting social and livelihood protection it may repeat the bad consequences of the policy backlash suffered by Brazil.Through the compilation and analysis of data, the article explores and summarizes the deep-seated reasons behind the decline of Brazil's economic miracle from the policy level, and provides lessons for other countries to learn in the process of developing their own economies.
政府政策对巴西经济奇迹失败的影响
从1968年到1973年,由于军政府在政治和经济领域的改革政策,巴西经历了前所未有的经济增长。但1974年以后,由于国内外环境的变化和主观、客观多方面的原因,再加上全球石油危机的影响,巴西经济逐渐衰退。1980年之后,美国进入了所谓的“失去的十年”。本文利用巴西国家地理与统计研究所(INEGI) 1970年至1980年的统计年鉴数据,以比较的方式分析了巴西经济奇迹般衰退的政策层面原因。分析表明,巴西经济奇迹逐渐衰落的很大一部分原因来自于巴西政府在这一时期实施的政策,如债务发展战略、以产业为基础的产业结构、贸易保护和国家干预。文章进一步指出,巴西经济奇迹的后期衰落恰恰是由于其短期透支和不可持续的政策性质。由此可以推断,如果一个国家在经济转型过程中实施的政策不是基于本国国情,忽视自身的资源优势,只注重经济发展,忽视对社会和民生的保护,就可能重蹈巴西政策反弹的覆辙。本文通过对数据的整理和分析,从政策层面探索和总结出巴西经济奇迹衰落背后的深层次原因,并为其他国家在发展本国经济的过程中提供借鉴。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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