The Importance of the Zagros Mountains Barrier Jet to Future Precipitation in the Fertile Crescent

J. Evans, A. Alsamawi
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引用次数: 8

Abstract

This study quantifies the significance of southerly water vapour fluxes, associated with the Zagros Mountains barrier jet, on precipitation occurring in the Eastern Fertile Crescent region and its change due to global warming. Precipitation events are simulated using a Regional Climate Model (MM5-Noah) driven by boundary conditions from a CCSM global climate model simulation with the SRES A2 emission scenario. The precipitation events were grouped into classes based on the similarity of their water vapour fluxes. Results show a massive increase in the southerly dominated classes which are associated with the formation of a barrier jet on the western slopes of the Zagros Mountains. This increase was related to an increase in atmospheric water vapour in the southern portion of the domain rather than to an increase in the frequency of formation or wind speed of the barrier jet itself. The presence of this barrier jet becomes increasingly important to precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent region as global warming progresses. Thus, low resolution models that are unable to capture this phenomena will produce questionable future projections for this region.
扎格罗斯山屏障喷流对新月沃地未来降水的重要性
本研究量化了与扎格罗斯山脉障壁急流相关的南部水汽通量对东新月沃地降水及其因全球变暖而发生的变化的意义。使用区域气候模式(MM5-Noah)模拟降水事件,该模式由CCSM全球气候模式模拟的SRES A2排放情景的边界条件驱动。根据水汽通量的相似性对降水事件进行了分类。结果表明,南向优势类大量增加,这与扎格罗斯山西坡形成障壁射流有关。这种增加与区域南部大气水蒸气的增加有关,而不是与屏障射流本身的形成频率或风速的增加有关。随着全球变暖的进展,这种屏障喷流的存在对新月沃地东部地区的降水变得越来越重要。因此,无法捕捉这一现象的低分辨率模式将对该地区的未来预测产生问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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