Transient Dynamics of Epidemic Spreading and Its Mitigation on Large Networks

Abstract

In this paper, we aim to understand the transient dynamics of a susceptible-infected (SI) epidemic spreading process on a large network. The SI model has been largely overlooked in the literature, while it is naturally a better fit for modeling the malware propagation in early times when patches/vaccines are not available, or over a wider range of timescales when massive patching is practically infeasible. Nonetheless, its analysis is simply non-trivial, as its important dynamics are all transient and the usual stability/steady-state analysis no longer applies. To this end, we develop a theoretical framework that allows us to obtain an accurate closed-form approximate solution to the original SI dynamics on any arbitrary network, which captures the temporal dynamics over all time and is tighter than the existing approximation, and also to provide a new interpretation via reliability theory. As its applications, we further develop vaccination policies with or without knowledge of already-infected nodes, to mitigate the future epidemic spreading to the extent possible, and demonstrate their effectiveness through numerical simulations.