ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY WHILE SELECTING THE OPERATIONAL STRATEGY BY THE INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES IN ROMANIA

Rusu Vasilica
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Abstract

In conditions of uncertainty, an enterprise should have a rational basis for making decisions, which would enable the comparison of different alternatives and the choice of the most suitable action for achieving its objectives. Some researchers consider that uncertainty is generated either by insufficient knowledge about the nature of phenomena and processes or by the lack of information about these phenomena and processes. The author considers that these interpretations need to be completed by clarifying the motives which cause uncertainty. The following types of environment can be distinguished which could be considered as sources of uncertainty: socio-economic; scientific and technical; political and juridical; the sales partners’ environment; the environment of the seller; the competitors’ environment; the consumers’ environment; the investments environment. The aim of the present paper is to determine the degree of influence (markedness) of each type of uncertainty upon the decisions made while selecting the operational strategy by the industrial enterprise. The research has been carried out at 29 enterprises from different industrial fields from Romania: metallurgical industry, production of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations, construction materials industry, food-processing industry, manufacture of chemical substances and products. The management teams of those companies have taken part in the survey. The research is based on the data processing and analysis obtained from 256 questionnaires. The survey carried out within the industrial enterprises has shown that the uncertainty from the consumption environment has the biggest impact upon the operational decisions of the companies. The uncertainty from the internal, political, juridical, scientific and technical environment is being analyzed to a lesser extent. The lowest domain of uncertainty is characteristic for the chemical industry and the highest for the industry of manufacture of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations.
罗马尼亚工业企业在选择经营战略时的不确定性评估
在不确定的情况下,企业应该有一个合理的决策基础,使企业能够比较不同的备选方案,选择最适合实现其目标的行动。一些研究人员认为,不确定性要么是由于对现象和过程的本质认识不足,要么是由于缺乏有关这些现象和过程的信息。作者认为,这些解释需要通过澄清造成不确定性的动机来完成。可以区分下列类型的环境,它们可以被视为不确定性的来源:社会经济;科学技术;政治和司法;销售伙伴的环境;卖方的环境;竞争对手的环境;消费者环境;投资环境。本文的目的是确定每种不确定性对工业企业选择经营战略时所作决策的影响程度(显著性)。这项研究是在罗马尼亚不同工业领域的29家企业进行的:冶金工业、基本药品和医药制剂生产、建筑材料工业、食品加工业、化学物质和产品制造。这些公司的管理团队都参与了调查。该研究基于对256份问卷的数据处理和分析。在工业企业内部进行的调查表明,消费环境的不确定性对公司的经营决策影响最大。内部、政治、司法、科学和技术环境的不确定性在较小程度上得到了分析。最低的不确定性域是化学工业的特征,而最高的不确定性域是基础药物和药物制剂制造工业的特征。
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