Tropical Flood Estimation Model Derived from Weather Radar Information

Abstract

Floods are among the most frequent and costliest natural disasters. Conditions that can cause floods include heavy or/and long-steady rain for several hours or days where excess water saturates the ground. Long term precipitation forecast may not be totally dependable, therefore a new estimation method capable of predicting upcoming flood events with high degree of accuracy is required. The information from rain gauges and radar data can be critical inputs for the new flood warning system. A flood estimation method was developed incorporating an algorithm that processes inputs namely the rainfall rate information, horizontal and vertical profile of radar reflectivity values. The rainfall rate data, cloud thickness values, and the sizes of the clouds during the 2014 flood disaster were acquired and analyzed. The periods of measurement involve rain events before, during and after the flood tragedy. The study was carried out using 14 days of precipitation phenomena observed in Kota Bharu, Kelantan, Malaysia from 13 December 2014 until 26 December 2014. The derived flood estimator algorithm acquired in this research can be very useful to predict flood tragedy in the future. This can also be the development model that to be integrated into the radar system.