An Exploratory Analysis and Predictive SIR Model for the Early Onset of COVID-19 in Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract

The growth of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) in India has been rampant. Despite having a relatively small value of R0, the spread of disease increases exponentially every consecutive day. This chapter aims to analyze and conduct a concise study for the southern state of Tamil Nadu in India and build non-linear predictive models that evaluate the transmission of coronavirus amongst locals. A logistic regression and SIR model are deployed to understand the potential spread of disease. Through descriptive analysis on theoretical segmented portions, districts in Tamil Nadu with a higher number of confirmed cases are identified. Computation of crude mortality rate, infection fatality rate, predictive models, illustrations, and their results are discussed analytically.