The State of the Union? US Midterms and the Race for 2024

Abstract

POLITICAL INSIGHT • MARCH 2023 U S political cycles are short. No sooner were the tallies in from last November’s tumultuous midterm elections than the focus had shifted to the 2024 presidential election. The Republicans underperformed in the midterms, but that did not stop former President Donald Trump announcing that he will be standing in 2024. As President Biden gave his State of the Union address in February, the expectation grew that he would run for re-election. Biden has yet to make a formal announcement, but polls suggest most Americans, including a majority of Democrats, doubt the wisdom of an octogenarian president running again. Before looking at the prospects for 2024, however, it is important to reflect on what happened in the 2022 midterms. These simultaneously confounded the predictions of much of the commentariat, gave greater The State of the Union? US Midterms and the Race for 2024