The Effect of Oil Prices on Offshore Production: Evidence from the Norwegian Continental Shelf

Abstract

I use detailed field-level data on Norwegian off-shore oil field production and a semi-parametric additive model to control for the production profile of fields to estimate the effect of oil prices on production. I find no significant evidence of a concurrent reaction of field production to oil prices, though a slight lagged effect is found of the magnitude of approximately 2 to 4% for a 10 dollar per barrel increase in the real price of oil. Most of this effect appears to come in the planning phase of a field’s development.