Taxonomy of interstate conflicts: is South America a peaceful region?

Abstract

Understanding and classifying conflicts is not new. The international scenario is dynamic, adapting to new situations, therefore, periodically it becomes necessary to make an exercise of (re) thinking the realities of interstate conflicts.This article revisits the literature on the taxonomy of interstate conflicts, contrasting it with historical data focused on South America, and thus questions traditional classifications and the argument that the region is peaceful. This study is rooted in the reflection of the main scholars in the field and the contribution of international research institutes dedicated to the subject. Based on such sources, the study seeks a better understanding of the conflicts in South America, identifying their classification in comparison with the dynamics of international conflicts that occurred in the same period. At least, it deals with the widespread interpretation that South America is a peaceful region.Initially, it presents a methodology that attempts, albeit in a limited way, to contribute to a still little explored aspect of the research on Defence. The context is similar to what is seen in the framework of the studies on armed conflict, with the contribution of international relations and political science.Next, the reference literature is reviewed. Two interpretations of interstate conflicts in South America are examined. The first, which is known as 'Long Peace', supports the idea that the region is experiencing a period of prolonged peace, without major tensions and confrontations among the states. This aspect was investigated from two perspectives: the construction of the 'taxonomy of interstate conflicts' and the construction of the theoretical argument of the 'Long Peace in South America'. First, a detailed analysis of different databases dedicated to systematizing and assessing conflicts between states is conducted, which then serves as a support for informing and better understanding the conceptual argument brought to light.The second interpretation is knowns as 'The violent peace and the latent conflicts in South America' in that it admits the existence of a level of intensity not properly grasped by theorists and indicators of the first dimension. Such perspective advances the existence of frozen conflicts among the South American states. It shows evidence that the 'South American long peace' does not necessarily rest on solid a foundation, since frozen conflicts seem to be hidden under classification variables that disregard important historical and geopolitical issues on the South American continent.The present study is based both on theoretical landmarks and empirical elements. The literature review was built from bibliographical research on the following: Battaglino (2012, 2008), Centeno (2002), Child (1985), Kacowicz, (1998), Lopes (2013), Mares (2012, 2001), Martin (2006, 2002), Medeiros Filho (2011, 2010), Pieri (2011), Rudzit (2013), Saint-Pierre (2013, 2011) and Saint-Pierre and Palacios Jr. (2014).The empirical framework was built by mapping databases associated with regional conflicts, namely: 01. Correlates of War (COW), described by Sarkees and Wayman (2010); 02. Military Interstate Dataset (MID), described by Palmer et al. (2015); 03. Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), described by Pettersson and Wallensteen (2015); and, 04. Conflict with Barometer, from the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (WANCKE, 2015). The dataset was analyzed with the support of the 'content analysis' technique (BARDIN, 1977), which made it possible to extract the typologies, taxonomies, variables and indicators associated with the study of contemporary armed conflicts.Finally, brief conclusions as well as additional investigation options which can be further explored in future studies are proposed. The perspective of using matrices exogenous to the region, either by the use of external theories or by the use of empirical data not contextualized to the regional reality, hinders a better understanding of the specific dynamics of the subcontinent. …