{"title":"Comment","authors":"John C. Williams","doi":"10.1086/648695","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Dennis Quinn and Hans‐Joachim Voth’s paper “Free Flow, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Risk of Stock Market Correlations, 1890–2001” provides important new data and insights into the causes of the portfolio home bias puzzle, a topic that has intrigued economists for decades (see Lewis [1999] for a summary of the literature). Historically, the correlation of equity returns across countries has been relatively low, suggesting that investors could significantly reduce risk by diversifying their portfolios to include greater shares of foreign stocks. But, investors often have not done so. Rather, they have tended to overweight domestic equities relative to foreign equities. This paper provides evidence that the lack of international portfolio diversification in part reflects restrictions on capital mobility. In a nutshell, investors historically did not take advantage of the hypothesized gains from international diversification because they were not allowed to do so. In particular, the authors find that the low historical correlation in equity returns is associated with periods in which capital controls were very restrictive. With the widespread relaxation of capital controls in recent decades, the correlations of equity returns across countries have risen dramatically, suggesting that the hypothetical benefits from diversification have shrunk just as investors have gained the ability to take advantage of them. The paper makes two key contributions. First, the authors extend the Quinn‐Toyoda measure of capital account openness to cover over 110 years of data for 16 countries. Data are a public good essential for research, and the creation of new high‐quality data is worthy of high praise on its own. Second, the paper provides compelling evidence of a positive empirical link between theirmeasure of capitalmarket openness and correlations in equity returns across pairs of countries. Above and beyond the application to the portfolio home bias puzzle, these","PeriodicalId":353207,"journal":{"name":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1086/648695","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Dennis Quinn and Hans‐Joachim Voth’s paper “Free Flow, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Risk of Stock Market Correlations, 1890–2001” provides important new data and insights into the causes of the portfolio home bias puzzle, a topic that has intrigued economists for decades (see Lewis [1999] for a summary of the literature). Historically, the correlation of equity returns across countries has been relatively low, suggesting that investors could significantly reduce risk by diversifying their portfolios to include greater shares of foreign stocks. But, investors often have not done so. Rather, they have tended to overweight domestic equities relative to foreign equities. This paper provides evidence that the lack of international portfolio diversification in part reflects restrictions on capital mobility. In a nutshell, investors historically did not take advantage of the hypothesized gains from international diversification because they were not allowed to do so. In particular, the authors find that the low historical correlation in equity returns is associated with periods in which capital controls were very restrictive. With the widespread relaxation of capital controls in recent decades, the correlations of equity returns across countries have risen dramatically, suggesting that the hypothetical benefits from diversification have shrunk just as investors have gained the ability to take advantage of them. The paper makes two key contributions. First, the authors extend the Quinn‐Toyoda measure of capital account openness to cover over 110 years of data for 16 countries. Data are a public good essential for research, and the creation of new high‐quality data is worthy of high praise on its own. Second, the paper provides compelling evidence of a positive empirical link between theirmeasure of capitalmarket openness and correlations in equity returns across pairs of countries. Above and beyond the application to the portfolio home bias puzzle, these
Dennis Quinn和Hans‐Joachim Voth的论文《自由流动,有限的多样化:开放和股票市场相关性的下跌和风险,1890-2001》为投资组合家乡偏差之谜的原因提供了重要的新数据和见解,这是一个几十年来一直吸引经济学家的话题(参见Lewis[1999]的文献摘要)。从历史上看,各国股票回报率的相关性一直相对较低,这表明投资者可以通过分散投资组合,增加外国股票的份额来显著降低风险。但是,投资者往往没有这样做。相反,相对于外国股票,他们倾向于增持国内股票。本文提供的证据表明,国际投资组合多样化的缺乏部分反映了资本流动的限制。简而言之,从历史上看,投资者没有利用国际多元化带来的假设收益,因为他们不被允许这样做。特别是,作者发现,股票回报率的低历史相关性与资本管制非常严格的时期有关。随着近几十年来资本管制的广泛放松,各国股票回报率之间的相关性大幅上升,这表明,就在投资者获得利用这些收益的能力之际,多元化带来的假设收益却缩水了。这篇论文做出了两个关键贡献。首先,作者扩展了奎恩-丰田衡量资本账户开放程度的方法,涵盖了16个国家110多年的数据。数据是研究必不可少的公共产品,创造新的高质量数据本身就值得高度赞扬。其次,本文提供了令人信服的证据,证明他们对资本市场开放程度的衡量与国家对股票回报的相关性之间存在积极的实证联系。除了对投资组合家乡偏见难题的应用之外,这些