Maximum—A Posteriori Estimation of Linear Time-Invariant State-Space Models via Efficient Monte-Carlo Sampling

Abstract

This article addresses maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimation of linear time-invariant state-space (LTI-SS) models. The joint posterior distribution of the model matrices and the unknown state sequence is approximated by using Rao-Blackwellized Monte-Carlo sampling algorithms. Specifically, the conditional distribution of the state sequence given the model parameters is derived analytically, while only the marginal posterior distribution of the model matrices is approximated using a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampler. From the joint distribution, MAP estimates of the unknown model matrices as well as the state sequence are computed. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on a numerical example and on a real laboratory benchmark dataset of a hair dryer process.