Do First Impressions Last? The Impact of Initial Assessments and Subsequent Performance on Promotion Decisions

Dirk E. Black, Marshall D. Vance
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引用次数: 14

Abstract

This paper examines whether and for how long managers’ initial assessments of employee ability influence promotion decisions. Using archival data from minor league professional baseball, we find that, controlling for performance, initial assessments are associated with promotion decisions for at least six years after the initial assessments were made. We also find that initial assessments are positively associated with future performance at the outset of a player’s career, but the association becomes insignificant after a player accumulates on-the-job experience. We show that the weight on initial assessments for promotion decisions declines as additional on-the-job performance signals are observed, reflecting the declining relative informativeness of initial assessments about future ability. We construct a proxy for relative informativeness based on coefficients from regressions of future performance on initial assessments and observed performance. When we compare the implied relative weight on initial assessments for promotion decisions to our proxy for relative informativeness, we find initial assessments receive greater relative weight than implied by informativeness overall and across experience and job-level partitions. Our results suggest managers update initial beliefs about worker ability slowly given available performance measures. This paper was accepted by Shiva Rajgopal, accounting.
第一印象能持久吗?初始评估和后续绩效对晋升决策的影响
本文考察了管理者对员工能力的初步评估是否以及影响晋升决策的时间。利用职业棒球小联盟的档案数据,我们发现,在控制绩效的情况下,初始评估与晋升决策的关联至少持续了六年。我们还发现,在球员职业生涯开始时,最初的评估与未来的表现呈正相关,但在球员积累了在职经验后,这种联系就变得不重要了。我们发现,当观察到额外的在职表现信号时,对晋升决策的初始评估的权重下降,反映了对未来能力的初始评估的相对信息量下降。我们构建了一个基于初始评估和观察绩效的未来绩效回归系数的相对信息性代理。当我们将晋升决策的初始评估的隐含相对权重与相对信息性的代理进行比较时,我们发现初始评估的相对权重大于总体、跨经验和工作级别分区的信息性所隐含的相对权重。我们的研究结果表明,鉴于现有的绩效衡量标准,管理者们会慢慢地更新对员工能力的最初看法。这篇论文被会计Shiva Rajgopal接受。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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