Future Scenarios for Emissions From Energy and Power Production in the Rocky Mountain Region

Abstract

Across the U.S., electricity production from coal-fired generation is declining while use of renewables and natural gas is increasing. This trend is expected to continue in the future. In the Rocky Mountain region, this shift is expected to reduce emissions from electricity production while increasing emissions from the production and processing of oil and gas, with significant implications for the level, location, and timing of the air pollution emissions that are associated with these activities. In turn, these emissions changes will affect air quality in the region, with impacts on ground-level ozone of particular concern. This study aims to evaluate the tradeoffs in emissions from both power plants and oil and gas basins resulting from contrasting scenarios for shifts in electricity and oil and gas production through the year 2030. The study also incorporates federal and state-level regulations for CH4, NOx, and VOC emissions sources. These regulations are expected to produce significant emissions reductions relative to baseline projections, especially in the oil and gas production sector. Annual emissions from electricity production are estimated to decrease in all scenarios, due to a combination of using more natural gas power plants, renewables, emissions regulations, and retiring old inefficient coal power plants. However, reductions are larger in fall, winter, and spring than in summer, when ozone pollution is of greatest concern. Emissions from oil and gas production are estimated to either increase or decrease depending on the location, scenario, and the number of sources affected by regulations. The net change in emissions thus depends on pollutant, location, and time of year.