Research on driving mechanism of total energy consumption in Jiangsu province based on the extended STIRPAT model

Abstract

Grasping the driving factors of energy consumption is an important research topic for effective energy saving and consumption reduction. Based on the classic IPAT model, the extended STIRPAT model is used to analyze the main driving factors of Jiangsu's energy consumption from 2005 to 2020, and quantitatively study the mechanism and influence mechanism of key driving factors on Jiangsu's energy consumption. The research conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the population size, urbanization, and foreign trade are the main factors that promote the growth of energy consumption, and the industrial structure and technological progress are the main factors that inhibit the growth of energy consumption. Secondly, the population size effect reflects Jiangsu's urban function of absorbing employment and agglomerating population on the one hand, and on the other hand illustrates the energy demand caused by population growth and the accompanying urbanization process; While import and export trade is driving economic growth, its energy-consuming import processing and export-oriented trade model has become an important contributor to Jiangsu's energy consumption growth. Finally, industrial structure and energy consumption intensity are the main contributors to curbing the growth of energy consumption during this period. The inhibitory effect of industrial structure on energy growth is stronger than energy consumption intensity. Especially in the adjustment of industrial structure, Jiangsu continues to promote industrial optimization and adjustment, and the proportion of industrial added value continues to decrease, which effectively reduces the growth of energy consumption demand. Energy utilization efficiency is another contributing factor to curb energy consumption growth. Although the energy consumption index of Jiangsu's main industrial products has reached the international advanced level, there is still a big gap between the energy intensity of Jiangsu's unit GDP and the international advanced level.