Multi-scale Forecasting and Targeting of Tropical Cyclones in the Western Pacific

Abstract

In support of The Observing-system Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS-08) experiments, a variety of real-time products were produced at the Naval Research Laboratory during the field campaign that took place from August through early October 2008. In support of the targeted observing objective, large-scale targeting guidance was produced twice daily using singular vectors (SVs) from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). For mesoscale models, TC forecasts were produced using a new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) developed specifically for tropical cyclone prediction (COAMPS-TC). In addition to the COAMPSTC forecasts, mesoscale targeted observing products were produced using the COAMPS forecast and adjoint system twice daily, centered on storms of interest.